Shot Variation

The Point

It's the Philly Open 2021 and the rising Fraser/Morgan are challenging Broderick/Palmer. Pay attention to Fraser's backhand throughout these points. The first occurs at 1-1 in the first set:

Analysis

The backhand comes in the middle of the point above and allows Fraser/Morgan take the net, and ultimately win on a Fraser cut. The backhand is preceded by a lob from Morgan that pulls Palmer into the deuce court. He hits a soft middle overhead and moves to get back to the ad court, but this actually creates a small space between Palmer and Broderick through which Fraser drives.

This establishes the backhand drive through the middle as an offensive shot for Fraser. He hits two more backhands to the middle just a few points later, and actually takes the net on the first (Palmer volleys the second). In the same point, Fraser then probes Broderick at the net with a down-the-line drive:

The down-the-line drive is interesting in this case, not because it wins the point, but because it tests Broderick and lets him know that the backhand can be hit there. It introduces a variation so that Broderick can't simply sit on the drive through the middle.

Broderick's positioning is notable there as well because he's closer to the middle, as if he was leaning middle for Fraser's drive. In later points, Broderick seems to be a bit wider---almost leaning down-the-line, and that creates an opening for the drive through the middle (again).

Similar to the first drive through the middle, this drive takes a slightly higher arc and Broderick flinches his chicken-wing volley towards it but can't get to it. This is a bit different in that it comes off the double wire rather than the deck, but there are still only two locations to hit it: middle or line.

Now in the second set, we see Fraser continue to go back to the middle on the drive in this sequence:

Broderick is ready for the drive and is (again) leaning middle:

So, Fraser adapts a bit later in the second set and then rips one down the line on game point and catches Broderick off-guard:

Conclusion

Obviously players are probably not calculating each of these shots in the moment. But they are certainly intuiting which shots and shot locations are winning points for them. In this case, Fraser seems to favor the middle for his backhand drive but sprinkles in enough down-the-line variation to keep his opponent honest. Furthermore, it's great to win points when hitting a variation of your favorite shot, but even if you don't win on that exact shot, the variation alone might help your more traditional shot (and location) to win points in the future.